GOOD NEWS: US deaths from the coronavirus could be reduced to 1.1 million by July 4th via “social distancing” measures, new projection shows
Monday, March 09, 2020 by: Mike Adams
Tags: coronavirus, infections, outbreak, pandemic, Projections, simulation, social distancing, Wuhan
(Natural News) We finally have some good news to report. The number of Americans killed by the coronavirus by July4th can be reduced to only 1.1 million — or even just 1,300 with a far more aggressive approach — through the pursuit of “social distancing” measures, our new projection simulation shows (when using an R0 value of 2.4, which still may be far too low).
“Social distancing” essentially means medical martial law. Our new pandemic projection model shows it absolutely works to halt the spread of the virus. That’s why Italy just declared medical martial law across the entire country, essentially ordering all citizens to self-quarantine and not leave their homes across the entire country.
It’s now crystal clear that medical martial law can stop the spread of the coronavirus in the United States.
To understand why national quarantines work so well, you can now download the “Pandemic Projection Model” spreadsheet yourself at this link and run various scenarios using your own numbers. Our new model (Revision 2) includes a variable called “Social distancing suppression” that allows you to enter a value from 1% to 99%. This is then calculated into a suppression factor of new, daily infections.
This new model, which replaces Revision 1 released last week, shows that if an R0 value of 2.4 is used together with a social suppression value of 25%, the aggregate deaths in the USA is reduced to just 1.1 million people by July 4th.
If you assume the R0 value is actually 4.5 — which may be more accurate — then you have to achieve a social distancing suppression factor of 60% to limit the number of dead to 1.1 million by July 4th.
This is about half the projected number of deaths compared to the previous model which used a different algorithm that did not compensate for social distancing suppression of the spread of the virus.
And yes, we understand that typically the R0 value would incorporate the social distancing suppression factor, but we have intentionally broken it out as a separate variable so that it can be manipulated on its own.
You can download the spreadsheet yourself and run your own scenarios to see how many infections and deaths might occur using your own numbers.
With a 50% suppression factor, the number of deaths is just 1,322 by early July
If you assume a 50% suppression factor for the projection while using an R0 value of 2.4, that puts “today” at day 53, with 22 deaths. If you then count forward from there to a new day #170 (you will need to add more rows of calculations), which represents the new July 4th under this model, the number of deaths plunges to just 1,322.
In other words, social distancing is the answer (along with anti-virals, of course, which is a form of suppressing socially-induced infections).
But the higher the R0 value, the stronger the medical martial law has to be in order to overcome it. (This makes intuitive sense.)
Trump must immediately place the entire United States of America into a quarantine lockdown, or the coronavirus will continue to spread
The bottom line here is that if President Trump wants to stop this pandemic from killing millions, he must order nationwide closings of air traffic, roads, schools, churches, public transportation and other forms of interaction that spread the virus. He must essentially declare (and enforce) a nationwide quarantine, Italy-style.
If we achieve just a 50% reduction in new infections with the virus R0 value at 2.4, the number of deaths drops from 1.1 million to about 1,300. To understand why the math works this way, download the spreadsheet yourself and play with the scenarios.
So far, however, Trump is claiming this virus is “no worse than the flu,” which means the suppression factor at this moment is fairly close to zero.
Download the spreadsheet yourself, change the social distancing suppression factor to 1% and see what happens (if you dare). You’ll quickly see that if Trump continues to deny the seriousness of this pandemic, it goes ballistic very, very quickly and ends up killing millions of Americans. But if he gets serious and orders all domestic air traffic halted and cities quarantined, the entire epidemic can be ended this year, long before Election Day.
Which future will Trump choose? Nobody knows. But if Trump doesn’t come to grips with the reality of this pandemic instead of just stupidly telling us it’s no worse than the flu, he won’t be president much longer and millions of Americans will be needlessly killed by an epidemic that could have been stopped but wasn’t.
You can download the spreadsheet file from this article page at NaturalNews.com.
Be sure to check all the articles, podcasts and videos at Pandemic.news.
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